COLUMBUS, Ohio — The most politically important state in America, at least in the eyes of the White House, is Ohio. President Obama arrives this weekend for one last rally of the campaign season, his 12th visit since taking office and his second in only two weeks.
But the attention might be as much about Mr. Obama’s own political fortunes as about the 2010 midterm election.
Even as party leaders in Washington leave some vulnerable Democrats to fend for themselves in the final days of the campaign and scramble to shore up incumbents who might be more viable, one candidate is being given particular assistance: Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio, who is in a difficult battle for re-election.
The reason is not simply that he still has a chance of winning. For Mr. Obama, the fate of Mr. Strickland could be very much tied to his own, since a Republican in the Ohio governor’s seat could make his re-election to the presidency in 2012 that much more complicated.
Ohio is one of nine states where Mr. Obama expanded the Democratic map in the last presidential election, and his advisers believe the electoral votes here are likely to be among the most critical to assure his return to the White House. Republicans do not disagree and have used that argument in the final stages of the midterm election campaign as a motivating factor.
John Kasich, a former Republican congressman who is running for governor, said in an interview on Thursday that “Strickland and Obama have the same philosophy.” He urged voters to think of the implications beyond the governor’s contest and he asked Republican leaders to amplify the point, which Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, the head of the Republican Governors Association, has done in a video message here.
“This election on Nov. 2 is a critical step in determining whether Barack Obama is going to be re-elected president of the United States,” said Mr. Barbour, who is among the Republicans considering running for president. “We can’t wait until 2012 to start taking our country back. We’ve got to win starting this November, and Ohio is the place that we start.”
The Ohio governor’s race also offers a case study for how Democrats will fare for openly embracing the president, a gesture that has become an exception rather than the rule among many of the party’s most endangered candidates. The White House has tried to play a more significant role in races for governor in other battleground states, particularly Florida, but few Democrats have welcomed Mr. Obama as warmly as Mr. Strickland has.
“I don’t think you win elections by running away from your friends,” Mr. Strickland said, pointing to a recovery in the auto industry and construction jobs created by the economic stimulus plan. “Ohio has benefited from the help we’ve received from the president and our Democratic friends in Congress. Why would I want to run away from those accomplishments?”
Ohio began the year as a land of opportunity for Democrats to hold their majority in the House, Senate and in key governorships. It has become a field of uphill battles for candidates, embodying the challenges facing the party across the country. Yet the outsized attention being paid to the governor’s race has only highlighted the disparity among Democratic candidates here.
Representative Steve Driehaus, who represents Ohio’s First Congressional District, was elected in 2008 when Mr. Obama led the ticket. He voted for the key elements of Mr. Obama’s agenda, including the health care overhaul and the economic stimulus package.
This month, Mr. Driehaus became the first Democrat to fall victim to a triage of endangered incumbents by party leaders, which deeply cut his television advertising and dashed any hopes that Mr. Obama would come and help rally voters.
“I am not going to lose sleep over the president being here or not being here,” said Mr. Driehaus, whose district on the state’s southern edge is about 250 miles from Cleveland, where Mr. Obama will visit twice this month. “I think it’s a mistake for him to ignore Cincinnati. Cincinnati was here for him in 2008, but we are going to win with him or without him.”
Republicans believe that they are positioned for a strong finish in Ohio on Tuesday, with the potential to gain as many as five Congressional seats, all of which were claimed by Democrats over the last two election cycles as the party expanded its majority. And Democrats have all but given up on the idea of winning the seat of George V. Voinovich, a Republican senator who is retiring.
The political climate has become so challenging for some Democrats that even Representative Dennis J. Kucinich, a former mayor of Cleveland who represents one of the party’s safest districts, is sufficiently concerned about his re-election that he sent out an urgent appeal this week to supporters, saying, “I need your help.”
The Ohio campaigns have unfolded against the backdrop of persistently high unemployment; the state’s jobless rate of 10 percent in September is higher than the national average of 9.6 percent. There has been no greater issue, particularly in the race for governor, than restoring some of the 400,000 jobs that have been lost here over the last four years.
The contest between Mr. Strickland and Mr. Kasich, which is rated as a tossup by The New York Times and other independent rankings, has become more competitive in the closing days, according to aides to both candidates. Mr. Strickland cut into a lead that Mr. Kasich held over the summer.
The fight for Ohio is now expected to hinge on which side has the better voter-turnout operation. For the Democrats, the weekend visits by Mr. Obama, along with Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and former President Bill Clinton, are a large component of that plan.
“There is nothing that could be done that isn’t being done,” Mr. Strickland said. “These rallies help communicate to people who are my supporters — or who should be my supporters — the importance of this race and the importance of voting.”
As Mr. Kasich traveled across the northeastern corner of Ohio on Thursday, he said the high-profile Democratic visitors had become a motivating force for Republicans, too.
“There’s nothing I can do about it,” Mr. Kasich said. “Biden’s basically been living here and Clinton and Obama are coming back again. They see it as their firewall. They are throwing everything they have at me.”
